A climate change simulation starting from 1935     

U Cubasch  G C Hegerl  A Hellbach  H Höck  U Mikolajewicz  B D Santer  R Voss 《Climate Dynamics》1995,11(2):71-84

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this cold start error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C0₂ concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (Business as Usual) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990–2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015–2025 and 2005–2015, respectively. The reduction of the cold start error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust.  相似文献   

Room temperature solid-state detectors for Gamma ray burst spectroscopy     

U. D. Desai  J. Pantazis  K. Shah 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,231(1-2):487-491

We have evaluated several solid state detectors which offer excellent energy resolution at room temperature for soft X-rays. For soft X-rays (< 1 keV to 20 keV), silicon P-intrinsic-N (PIN) and avalanche-mode photodiodes (APD's) have been studied. Using commercially available charge sensitive pre-amplifiers, these photodiodes provide 1 keV resolution without cooling. Their detection efficiencies are limited to about 20 keV and 15 keV, respectively. To overcome this constraint, we have studied thick (1.5 mm) PIN detectors made by Micron Semiconductor Ltd., U.K., as well as compound semiconducting materials with high Z constituents such as CZT and PbI₂. PbI₂ allows high detection efficiencies of photons up to 100 keV with detectors 100–300 microns thick. These new detectors offer the capability to study the low-energy spectral evolution of Gamma ray bursts (GRBs). A matrix of these detectors could be used as an image plane detector with moderate spatial resolution for imaging.  相似文献   

Impact cratering - a review,with special reference to the economic importance of impact structures and the Southern African impact crater record     

W. U. Reimold 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1995,70(1-3):21-45

Only since several decades has impact cratering been recognized as an important surface process on all planetary bodies in the Solar System. However, as the process has not yet been effectively introduced into geological curricula, it is necessary to inform a wider public about its importance for (i) planetary formation and (ii) evolution, (iii) the understanding of this process as a geological process, (iv) the terrestrial impact crater record and its limitations, and (v) the recognition criteria for terrestrial impact structures, as well as (vi) the need of improvement of the impact cratering record in the light of the potential danger of an impact catastrophe on this planet. It is, particularly for developing countries, of interest to examine the economic and educational-environmental potential of impact structures. That it is possible to carry out an effective, low-budget geological investigation of impact structures within a Second World environment is demonstrated by the discussion of the progress that has been made in recent years with regard to the Southern African impact crater record. Several recommendations on how to improve, on the one hand, the terrestrial impact crater record and, on the other, their general working situation by activation of workers in Developing Countries are discussed.  相似文献   

A study of the young open cluster NGC 6611     

R. Sagar  U. C. Joshi 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1979,62(1):3-12

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An extended investigation of Helios 1 and 2 observations: The interplanetary magnetic field between 0.3 and 1 AU     

F. Mariani  U. Villante  R. Bruno  B. Bavassano  N. F. Ness 《Solar physics》1979,63(2):411-421

Helios-1 and 2 spacecraft allowed a detailed investigation of the radial dependence of the interplanetary magnetic field components between 0.3 and 1 AU. The behaviour of the radial component B _ris in a very good agreement with Parker's model (B _r r ^-2) and the azimuthal component B also shows a radial dependence which is close to theoretical predictions (B r ^-1). Experimental results for the normal component B and for the field magnitude B are consistent with those from previous investigations. The relative amplitude of the directional fluctuations with periods less than 12 hr is essentially independent of heliocentric distance, while their power decreases approximately as r ^–3 without any appreciable difference between higher and lower velocity regimes.Also at Laboratorio Plasma nello Spazio, CNR, Frascati.  相似文献   

Landforms and Geomorphology — Concepts and History | C.A.M. King (Editor), 1976. Dowden,Hutchinson and Ross,Stroudsburg, Pa., 404 pp., £22.55, U.S. $38.40     

R.U. Cooke 《Earth》1977,13(2):209-210

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Spectral investigation of the chromosphere     

U. Grossmann-Doerth  Marina Von Uexküll 《Solar physics》1977,55(2):321-333

Several hundred H spectrograms from areas close to the solar limb were taken with the 35 cm Coudé refractor at Anacapri. The 41 spectra with the greatest spatial resolution were selected and analysed. At the supergranular boundaries a considerable fraction of the line profiles were found to correspond to Beckers Cloud Model (BCM). Moreover, the BCM parameters of the dark mottles at the limb appear to be approximately equal to those from the center of the disk. On the other hand, we also obtained evidence in disagreement with the general applicability of the BCM to all features of the chromospheric fine structure.We attempted to present the large set of observational data in a fashion that permits their interpretation by alternative theoretical models.Mitteilungen aus dem Fraunhofer Institut Nr. 151.  相似文献   

An upper limit on the aperture separation of ion drift meters     

E. A. Bering  K. G. Weber  U. V. Fahleson 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1982,83(1-2):37-49

An upper limit has been calculated on the effective aperture separation or detector thickness of ion drift meters of two fundamental types. The limit applies to meters which compare currents collected by detectors with different view directions at the same retarding potential and to meters which measure the entire thermal ion distribution function. For both types, a single scanned detector may be employed instead of multiple detectors, in which case the limit applies to twice the radius of curvature of the path followed by the detector aperture during a scan, (i.e. the diameter of a spinning payload). The limit was found to be important in two cases. First, in the F region on spacecraft with stringent electrostatic cleanliness requirements, the 10% error limit was found to be 40 cm. Second, in the E region, the limit was found to be 1 cm.Originally submitted to the journalSpace Science Instrumentation.Deceased.  相似文献